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Halfway home

10/22/2014

It’s all downhill from here. At long last, we’ve reached the halfway point of the regular season for fantasy football. It’s time to take stock of how your team (or in my case teams) are doing.

Have you been winning? Losing? Somehow managed to tie? Where are you in the standings?

These are just a few questions that you need to be asking yourself since time is beginning to run out on the season.

If you aren’t where you want to be, it’s time to make a change. The trade deadline is coming up and now might be the time to pull the trigger on that trade you’ve been thinking about. It’s time to drop that injured player who you thought might come back, and pick up someone new.

To put it bluntly, it’s time to get serious if you aren’t happy with your team right now.

In one of my leagues, I was relying on the running back duo of Bishop Sankey of the Tennessee Titans and Darren Sproles of the Philadelphia Eagles. I had lost three straight games after a 3-0 start. So what did I do? I dropped Sankey, benched Sproles and played Mark Ingram fresh off an injury and Roy Helu Jr. I won my first game in almost a month.

In another league I have been at my wit’s end trying to replace my first round pick, Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson. I’ve filled the gap with a combination of Oakland Raiders running back Darren McFadden, Buffalo Bills running back C.J. Spiller and backup Vikings running back Matt Asiata.

The results have been mixed, to say the least. I currently hold a 3-4 record, including a really close three-point loss this week.

What am I going to do about it? Well, I have two tight ends who are pretty good in Zach Ertz and Greg Olsen. I’m thinking about trying to flip one of them for an upgrade at running back. We’ll see how that works, but all I know is that I need to make a change in that league. I’m two games back in the standings and I need to make some kind of a move before it’s too late.

We’re coming on the stretch run. Every win you can get now will pay off big later. On the flip side, every loss could be the one that sends you out of the playoffs.

It’s do or die these next few weeks, so good luck out there.

How are your teams looking so far? New fantasy football players, how are you enjoying your first (or second) season? Let me know at 14tange14@gmail.com. You’ll make my week if you do!

Nick’s Waiver Wire Picks of the Week

1) Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins tight end

After being concussed week one, Reed didn’t see the field until week six. Since his return, he’s nabbed 13 balls for 146 yards. While he hasn’t found the end zone yet this season, if he continues this production, any touchdowns will make him extremely valuable. He’s still around in 65 percent of ESPN leagues, so get him while you still can.

2) Ronnie Hillman, Denver Broncos running back

When Montee Ball went down, there were a lot of questions in the Denver backfield. In two weeks, Hillman has quickly silenced the doubters. Those two games have seen Hillman put up 174 rushing yards, 45 reception yards and two touchdowns. Hillman is quickly rising into “must-start” territory, and owned in only 12 percent of leagues. Unfortunately for me, he’s already gone in my leagues.

3) Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals quarterback

In the three games Palmer has played in, he has gotten at least 250 yards and two touchdowns while committing only two turnovers. If you’re looking for a backup quarterback for a bye week fill in (week nine is a big week for byes) or need to finally get a competent QB, Palmer could be your guy. He’s taken in less than 10 percent of leagues, but if he continues to produce like this, that could change quickly.

Good luck, fantasy experts! And may my teams lose so yours don’t have to.

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winning ugly

10/15/2014

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The late, great Al Davis (former Oakland Raiders owner) had a saying: “Just win, baby.”

This mentality can, in many cases, be applied to fantasy football.

On Sunday, I got a text from my girlfriend saying she couldn’t believe she benched Carolina Panthers’ quarterback Cam Newton (284 passing yards, two TDs, 107 rushing yards, rushing TD) for Eli Manning (151 passing yards, no touchdowns).

But she did play Green Bay Packers’ receiver Jordy Nelson (nine catches, 107 yards, TD), Baltimore Ravens’ receiver Steve Smith (five catches, 110 yards, TD) and Arizona Cardinals’ receiver Larry Fitzgerald (six catches, 96 yards, TD) and was winning against her opponent.

I told her, “a win is still a win.”

In my two-flex player league, my four wide receivers combined for a grand total of 17 points.

But it doesn’t matter: I still won.

And a win is a win.

In my Rambler Sports Locker league, Buffalo Bills’ running back C.J. Spiller finished the day with negative points due to a costly fumble.

But it doesn’t matter: I still won.

And a win is a win.

In another league I played my beloved New York Giants receiver Victor Cruz, who was carted off the field with a torn patellar tendon on Sunday Night Football against the Eagles. I was also forced to bench Detroit receiver Calvin Johnson (considered one of the best in football) due to an injury.

But it doesn’t matter: I still won.

And a win is oh, you get the picture.

Yes. You aren’t always going to make the best decisions. You’re going to play players who do absolutely nothing while benching players who have career days.

Yes. You’re going to play players who are going to get hurt.

Yes. You’re going to make gambles that just won’t pay off.

Yes. You might be going up against people who stopped caring about the league and aren’t filling out their teams.

I used to think winning against owners who stopped caring was a hollow victory. It doesn’t have the same feeling as a win against someone who was really trying like you were. But you know what? You’ll have plenty of those kinds of matchups throughout the season and throughout the playoffs (if you’re fortunate enough to make it).

Now I look at these matchups against idle owners as kind of a mini-bye week. Just about anything can happen, and still my team will come out with a win.

It wasn’t all good in my leagues this week; I finished 4-2.

The running back pairing of Eagles’ speedster Darren Sproles and Tennessee Titans’ running back Bishop Sankey proved to be ineffective (save for Sproles’ touchdown), and the strong performances from San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick and Houston Texans’ running back Arian Foster for my opponent pounded the final nails into the coffin.

Do you have an example of winning ugly that you want to share? Need some advice on players? Email me at 14tange14@gmail.com. I’m anxiously awaiting your emails.

Nick’s Waiver wire picks of the week:

1) Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota running back

This one’s a bit of a deeper sleeper, but if you’re in a PPR league and are desperate for a running back, he’s the one I’m targeting. Over the last two weeks, he’s out-played starter Matt Asiata, and might be in line for more carries. His pass-catching ability alone makes him more valuable. Owned in just 5.1 percent of ESPN leagues, you should have no trouble locking him up.

2) Mohamed Sanu, Cincinnati wide receiver

With starter A.J. Green out, Sanu stepped up big against the Panthers, catching 10 passes for 120 yards. Even with Green returning, Sanu should still be a big factor in the offense, if he can score a touchdown. He’s scored in three of the last four games, so it’s safe to assume he’ll get looks in the red zone, just like Green. He’s currently taken in only 38.9 percent of leagues, but that number will likely dwindle soon.

3) Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots wide receiver

No, I’m not joking. I know LaFell has been my consummate joke pick over the last few years, but the winds of change are blowing in New England. Devoid of veteran receivers (outside of Rob Gronkowski), Tom Brady has given LaFell numerous looks over the last few weeks. Next week we see the Patriots going against the Bears. If you do the math, he’s likely going to continue this production. Add in the fact he’s only owned in less than 3 percent of ESPN leagues and you could have a winning formula on your hands.

Good luck, fantasy experts, and may my teams lose, so yours don’t have to.

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Studs turned Duds

10/8/2014

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Losses are frustrating most when your players that are supposed to perform the best, perform the worst. It's one thing to have an injury, it's another thing when the player is on the field and just is failing to perform.

I am a firm believer in the "start your studs" mentality. In other words, just because a player had one bad game or is going against a tough opponent, it doesn't mean you should bench them right away.

However, it's getting to the point of the season where if bad performances pile up, that idea might need to be changed.

Take, for instance, C.J. Spiller from the Buffalo Bills. Spiller was ranked by ESPN as one of the top 40 players in all of fantasy football coming into this season. So far, in five contests, Spiller has put forth a grand total of 321 rushing and receiving yards as well as one touchdown. That's a pitiful six and a half fantasy points per week.

Another player that should be putting up consistent numbers, yet isn't, is LeSean McCoy. Drafted in the top-five by essentially every fantasy draft, McCoy has put up a total of nine points over the last three weeks. If you take away his lone touchdown in week two, he'll have broken the 10 point mark only one time.

Other top-50 players that are having difficulty (not related to injury) include Percy Harvin (hasn't broken the 100-yard mark in a game this year, or found the end zone), Montee Ball (who before getting injured this week had only found the end zone in week one and hasn't finished above 10 points since), Andre Johnson (also hasn't broken 100 yards or found the end zone in a game this year) and Larry Fitzgerald (no touchdowns and has only broken 50 yards twice all season).

And that's not even mentioning Adrian Peterson.

Then you have the players that are boom-or-bust. In other words, they'll have one good or great week, and then have an absolutely awful week.

Demaryius Thomas is definitely one of those players. In his first three games, he broke 60 yards once, and found the end zone once.

On Sunday, "DT" caught eight passes for 226 yards and TWO touchdowns.

Boom-or-Bust players are some of the worst players to have, because they're entirely unpredictable. But I think it's worse when you expect a player to be a stud, and he either fails to live up to potential, or becomes dangerously inconsistent.

When it comes to these players, there are two options. You either stay the course and hope things turn around, or you bench them.

Sometimes it takes one good game to wake a player up, and they're consistent the rest of the way.

However, on the other side, some players just never get going and face a down year.

It's a player-by-player basis when it comes to this situation, and you just gotta go with your gut. Maybe you'll get lucky. Maybe you won't. But at the end of the day, a little luck is sometimes all you can hope for in fantasy football.

In my money league, I was taking on the number one team in the league. My spirits were extremely high after the Thursday Night Football game saw my Packer's Defense score an astounding 23 points. My confidence grew when I saw Peyton Manning finish with an amazing 31 points after his career-high 479 yards.

But my hopes were dashed on Monday Night Football with Marshawn Lynch's fourth quarter touchdown.

Despite my strong performances from Manning and the Packers, only two other players broke 10 points on my team. My keepers (McCoy and Doug Martin) combined for 12 points, while most expensive picks (Roddy White, Michael Floyd and Kelvin Benjamin) combined for an embarrassing 3 points.

In another league, my poor running back situation, plus Calvin Johnson's lingering ankle injury, doomed me. In a PPR setting, Johnson and running backs Bishop Sankey (Tennessee) and Daren Sproles (Philadelphia) combined for nine and a half points. Just despicable.

I was hoping to follow up my 4-2 week with another winning week, but unfortunately, I finished a sad 2-4.

Back to .500 on the season, I guess!

Frustrated with a big name player that isn't performing up to your standards? Need some roster help? Want to just talk fantasy? Please Email me! I had my wisdom teeth out this week, so now, more than ever, I'm able to respond to emails! You know the address, 14tange14@gmail.com.

Nick's Waiver-Wire Picks of the Week:

1) Andre Williams: New York Giants Running Back

With Rashad Jennings out, Williams will likely get the bulk of the carries against Philadelphia this week. If Williams can find the end zone, he will make it three-straight weeks with a score, making him a player you can start in the flex with confidence. It does help that Philadelphia hasn't kept a team under 25 points since week one. Williams is currently available in 36.4 percent of ESPN leagues, so get him while you can.

2) Justin Forsett: Baltimore Ravens Running Back

Forsett has emerged as the best option in a very crowded Baltimore backfield as they attempt to fill the void left by the Ray Rice scandal. He's best suited in a PPR league, where he averages over four catches a game. If he can keep finding the endzone (another player with two straight weeks with touchdowns), he can make it worth your while. Owned in 21.8 percent of ESPN leagues, he should be out there for you to grab.

3) Chargers D/ST

I never put defenses here, just because there's no such thing as a sure thing at the position.

The Chargers are playing the Raiders.

This is as close of a sure thing you'll ever get.

Still around in just over 20 percent of ESPN leagues, so grab them if you can, and reap the rewards.

Good luck fantasy experts, and may my teams lose, so yours don't have to.

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Bye week blues

10/1/2014

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In what sick, twisted universe are fantasy studs like Marshawn Lynch, Peyton Manning, Giovanni Bernard and Andre Ellington all not playing in the same week?

Oh right, the bye weeks have started.

Bye weeks are an integral part of the NFL. It gives players time to rest and recuperate in the midst of the long grind that is the NFL season.

However, while they help the real football players, they’re nothing but a headache for fantasy owners.

In my draft manifesto, I said there are two schools of thought on the bye week when it comes to drafting: stack up on bye weeks, or diversify them.

My go-to strategy is to diversify. I don’t like the idea of selling out one win to be successful every other week. To me, that one win could be the difference between making the playoffs and going home.

However, despite my usual attitude, I realized after drafting that not one but two of my teams were in dire straits because I overlooked players’ bye weeks.

In those two leagues, I only had one player that was playing last week who didn’t make the starting lineup. Every other case saw the players I took a late-round flier on finding their way into counting for my team.

I went 1-1 in those games. In one league, Philip Rivers’ outstanding day made up for the fact I had to grab Jacksonville wide-out Allen Robinson (who?) on Sunday to replace Michael Floyd from Arizona.

In the other, I was forced to play Carlos Hyde, Derek Carr and Doug Martin, who was coming off an injury. Martin did OK (40 rushing yards, 16 receiving yards and a touchdown). Hyde did not (26 rushing yards). Carr didn’t even make it through the game, going down in the third quarter with a high ankle sprain and a sprained MCL. Once again, my kicker outscored my entire team. I can’t stand it when my kicker outscores my entire team.

My last undefeated team also went down this week. Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones combined for a sickening 8 total receptions for 94 yards, zero touchdowns and 14 fantasy points. They matched up against Reggie Wayne and Jordy Nelson, who combined for 17 receptions, 227 yards, three touchdowns, and a helluva lot more than 14 fantasy points. My team never had a chance.

However, this week wasn’t all bad. Two of my teams won because my opponents were facing the same bye-week problems I was.

I ended up 4-2 on the week, and am in playoff position in half of my leagues.

As we pass the quarter-pole of the season, a lot can still happen and despite fast or slow starts, there will be many shakeups throughout every league before the final few weeks of the season are here.

Who do you have to put in to cover a bye week? Need advice on who to start/sit next week? Questions about who to pick up from waivers? Email me at 14tange14@gmail.com!

Nick’s Waiver Wire Picks of the Week:

1) Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs’ tight end

Kelce has emerged as one of the top receiving options in a run-first Kansas City offense. He has yet to record fewer than 35 yards in a game, and has found the end zone in back-to-back contests. In addition, in the Monday Night Football contest against New England, Kelce hauled in eight passes, making him a potential PPR league player. He’s only owned in 37 percent of leagues, so if you need a tight end, he could be your guy.

2) Larry Donnell, New York Giants’ tight end

If Kelce is unavailable, another guy I’m targeting on the waiver wire is Larry Donnell. Donnell exploded for three touchdowns last week in the Giants’ 45-14 punishing of the Washington Redskins. Eli Manning threw four touchdowns, all to tight ends. But last week wasn’t Donnell’s only decent game. He averages just over six catches a game for an average of just under 60 yards. In a PPR format, that’s an average of 12 points per game before you factor touchdowns into the mix. He’s available in around 73 percent of leagues, but won’t be around for long after last week’s performance.

3) Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings quarterback

Bridgewater has the potential to be the best rookie quarterback this year. In two weeks, he has only five fewer fantasy points than Tom Brady has all season. And I’m betting you didn’t draft Bridgewater in the first 10 rounds like you likely did Brady. Bridgewater looked solid against the Falcons before suffering an ankle injury. He might miss this week (since they play Thursday night against the Packers), but after that he should be a viable fantasy starter with Matt Cassel on injured reserve the rest of the season. He’s available in 90 percent of leagues, so you should be able to scoop him up, no problem.

Good luck, fantasy experts, and may my teams lose so yours don’t have to.

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Conflict of interests

9/24/2014

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Man, that was a rough week.

It’s one thing if your games come down to the wire and they just don’t go your way, but it’s completely another thing to just be entirely out of it by the time Sunday Night Football starts.

Luckily for me, I got to experience both of these scenarios.

In the first league in question, I am now sitting a sad 1-2, despite using my first two draft picks on two of the top wide receivers in football today (Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas).

They netted me a grand total of 13 points this week.

In fact, both running backs, both wide receivers, and my tight end totaled a whopping 22 points on the week. That’s a horrific 4.5 points per player.

Ouch.

It was so bad, my DEFENSE outscored anyone else on my team. Yes, it was the Indianapolis Colts defense against an awful Jacksonville Jaguars team. However, your defense doesn’t usually make up a huge part of your points. Let alone LEAD THE TEAM for the week.

Double ouch.

Now to the heartbreak.

I was down going into Monday Night Football. I was down a lot. I was down 34.5 points, but still had Nick Folk, the New York Jets’ kicker, and Jay Cutler the Chicago Bears’ quarterback.

Anyone who knows me knows that I am among the most die-hard Green Bay Packers fans out there. I bleed green and gold. I’m planning on signing my first-born child up for season tickets so that he or she can have them around his or her 18th birthday. I own a cheesehead.

And yet, on Monday Night Football, I was yelling, “Cutty just don’t care!” every time Jay Cutler did anything of note.

At the same time, I was chanting, “Come on, Nick Folk field goal,” every time the Jets had the ball.

That’s one of the things I absolutely love about fantasy football. If your player is in the game, you’re instantly a fan of that team. You want the team to do well so there’s a slight chance that your player gets that big run, or throws for that huge touchdown. Even if — especially in this case — that player happens to play for the arch-rival of your favorite team.

In the waning moments of Monday’s game, I trailed by a scant 3.12 points. The Bears had a first and 10 in the Jets’ red zone (inside the 20-yard line) and I was hoping that Cutler could throw for just one more touchdown.

Unfortunately, the Jets defense held up, and forced a field goal, giving me no more points.

Triple ouch.

My lone win this week was by 10 points, but came only because the Carolina Panthers were awful on defense.

On Sunday Night Football, the Panthers fell apart against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The usually stout defense yielded an embarrassing negative seven fantasy points after giving up 37 points and forcing no turnovers. Of the 20 available defenses that were on the waiver wire, 12 would have yielded the necessary four points it would have taken to swing the score 10 or more points in my opponents favor.

All in all, a dreary 1-5 week for my teams. I was 8-4 coming into the week. Now I sit an even 9-9 among my six leagues as we hit the quarter turn of the season.

An 0-6 week would have been killer. Luckily for me, a bad break by my opponent kept me from going 0-for in fantasy for the first time since I played with multiple leagues.

Dodge bullets of your own? Want to commiserate a loss? Need some advice on who to play next week? Email me at 14tange14@gmail.com! I answer emails all week! Not that I ever get emails, but still!

Nick’s Waiver Wire Picks of the Week

1) Brian Quick: St. Louis Rams wide receiver

One thing I really look for as the season gets going when I make waiver wire picks is consistency. Through three weeks, I think it’s safe to say Quick is consistent enough to pick up. Over three games, Quick has averaged just over five catches and 78 yards a game and he finally found the end zone for the first time last week against the Dallas Cowboys. If there’s a St. Louis player you have to have on your team, make sure it’s Quick, who is only owned in 24.3 percent of ESPN leagues.

2) Bobby Rainey: Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back.

Looking deeper into that Thursday Night Football rout, Rainey didn’t have that bad a game. For a team down early that threw most of the night, Rainey had 13 points in a PPR setting, despite fumbling twice (negative two points each fumble in most leagues). This was due to seven receptions by the young runner. As long as Doug Martin is sidelined with an injury, Rainey can be an adequate flex player if you have a PPR league. Only 18.7 percent of league owners have him, and since the Bucs were annihilated, other owners might overlook this potential diamond in the rough.

3) Niles Paul: Washington Redskins tight end

It doesn’t matter if it’s RGIII throwing to him, or Kirk Cousins. The ‘Skins throw to him, and throw to him often. Another potential diamond in the rough for PPR leagues, Paul averages six catches a game and has finished with more than 60 yards every game so far this season. If he finds the end zone like he did in week two, it’s an added benefit. Paul is owned in 7.6 percent of leagues, so if you want him, he’s a guy for the taking.

Good luck, fantasy experts, and may my teams lose so yours don’t have to.

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An Injury-Riddled massacre

9/17/2014

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Raise your hand if you made it through the weekend without any fantasy injuries.

If you didn’t raise your hand, I either don’t believe you, or you don’t play fantasy football.

This week saw the biggest number of high-profile injuries that I’ve ever seen in a single week of fantasy football.

Big-name star after big-name star fell throughout the day.

Washington Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III and wide out DeSean Jackson, Cincinnati Bengals wide out AJ Green, Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles, New Orleans Saints running back Mark Ingram, New York Jets wide out Eric Decker, St. Louis Rams wide out Tavon Austin, Miami Dolphins running back Knowshon Moreno, Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Marcedes Lewis, San Diego Chargers running back Ryan Mathews and San Francisco 49ers tight end Vernon Davis all were injured this past week.

In addition, Cleveland Browns running back Ben Tate, Arizona Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer, Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (though not because of injury) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin all missed week two. There were questions about Chicago Bears wide outs Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery leading up to the Sunday night game against the Niners that forced many owners to bench the stars, fearing they wouldn’t play.

Whew.

As for my teams, I both benefited and was hurt by these injury problems.

In one league, I was lifted to a win due to my opponent starting both RGIII and AJ Green.

In another league, however, I was stumped with Ben Tate’s injury. I ended up playing Darren McFadden, the oft-injured Oakland Raiders running back. He posted decent stats, but not as much as I would have expected a healthy Tate to get.

In addition, Eric Decker posted great stats in the first half, but was injured in the third quarter and didn’t return. I ended up losing on the second-to-last play of Monday Night Football: a 20-yard Darren Sproles run that put my opponent just above my total. Had Tate been able to play, or Decker been able to finish the game, I have no doubt in my mind I would be 2-0 in that league, instead of the 1-1.

Injuries are a big part of fantasy football, of course. However, this kind of injury-riddled week is something you almost never see.

Most of these players were drafted in the top five or six rounds of countless fantasy drafts. Many of these players are going to miss significant time. Those who aren’t will still face questions the closer we get to the start of week three. Just because they won’t miss significant time, doesn’t mean they won’t miss a game or two as a precaution.

In order to combat these injury questions, you need to look into the backups and starters that were avoided in the draft.

Injury problems? Need to know who to pick up as a replacement? Don’t hesitate to email me at 14tange14@gmail.com! I’m always happy to help fellow fantasy fanatics out! Plus, I’ll add your question to next week’s column!

Nick’s Waiver-Wire Picks of the Week:

1) James Jones: Oakland Raiders wide out

The former Green Bay Packer made headlines last week, but for the wrong reasons. Jones somehow managed to fumble the ball twice on the same play. Check out the video if you missed it. Even with this unfortunate accident, Jones is a top-10 wide out so far this year. The Raiders are not going to be competitive in many games this year. They’ll be throwing early and throwing often. Jones is already averaging six catches per game, and has scored a touchdown in both contests so far. Despite this, he’s only owned in 28.7 percent of ESPN leagues. Pick him up, and play him as a flex.

2) Matt Asiata: Minnesota Vikings running back

With the status of Adrian Peterson up in the air for the foreseeable future, it’s not a bad idea to look at AP’s backup as a viable fantasy starter. Asiata only gained 36 rushing yards on 13 attempts, but caught five balls for just under 50 yards and a touchdown. Not a guy you want starting in your lineup (unless you have to), but the kind of guy you want to have in case AP is out for a while. Since he’s only owned in 11 percent of ESPN leagues, he should be a player you can grab.

3) Kirk Cousins: Washington Redskins quarterback

Had RGIII and now need QB help? Cousins looked better than RGIII did in week one. Now that RGIII’s injured, it’s Captain Kirk’s time to shine. Owned in only 8 percent of ESPN leagues, he’s one guy you need to get your hands on if you have any issues with quarterbacks, or are in need of a competent backup.

Good luck, fantasy experts, and may my teams lose, so yours don’t have to.

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Overreacting to overreactions

9/10/2014

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It’s the start of Week 2, and I lost two games last week.

CLEARLY there’s something wrong with my team, right?

In my keeper league, Doug Martin gained nine yards on nine carries. That’s good for a grand total of zero points. I happened to lose that game by 15 points. On my bench was Chris Ivory, who racked up 16 points on the week thanks to his more than 100 yards rushing and a touchdown.

In one of my snake draft leagues, I spent a second-round pick on Denver Bronco wide out Demaryius Thomas, who nabbed all of four points on the weekend (non PPR scoring).

In another league, my New Orleans Saints’ defense was so awful that they scored NEGATIVE six points. It would have been better to not play a defense at all than to play the Saints’ defense.

Elsewhere around the NFL, players who went in the top-three rounds such as Jamaal Charles (average draft position (ADP) of third overall), Aaron Rodgers (ADP 12 overall) and Julio Jones (ADP 21 overall) all failed to post performances worthy of their draft positions.

So what is there to make about these less-than-stellar performances?

It’s easy to overreact to poor performances by top players. Especially if you had a bench player perform better.

I left Roddy White on the bench in one league this week, allowing his five catches, 72 yards and touchdown go to waste. Mark Ingram gained 60 rush yards and added two touchdowns. Andy Dalton outplayed Philip Rivers by 13 points.

It’s an easy choice to bench your underperforming studs in favor of these other players who had a good week last week.

But it’s the better play to stay the course with your studs this early in the season.

You picked Aaron Rodgers or Julio Jones or Demaryius Thomas in the first rounds for a reason. Even though they had a bad week, they’ll bounce back soon enough.

Several of the great performances in Week 1 could be flukes. Ivory’s touchdown and most of his yards came on one long touchdown run. You can’t expect that to happen every week.

It’s Week 1, people.

You don’t see the Packers freaking out and benching Aaron Rodgers after the loss to the Seahawks. You don’t see Jay Cutler getting benched after the loss to the Bills.

Why would you bench a top player just because he had a bad week? It doesn’t happen in real football and it shouldn’t happen in fantasy football.

Give your stud players a few weeks, but keep tabs on their performances. Not every stud pans out every year. It happens. But you wait a few weeks before giving up on them.

And these players that had great weeks? Add them to your bench. See what happens. They might not have excellent weeks every week, but they still might become solid contributors. Just as your studs might not pan out, these other players might become studs.

You lost this week. It’s not the end of the world. Your team will bounce back just like your studs will.

Have a bad performance from a stud? Need start/sit advice? Need to vent about a bad performance? Email me at 14tange14@gmail.com! I’d love to hear from you and I’ll put your questions in next week’s column!

Nick’s Picks of the Week:

1) Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis running back

The running back position has one of the highest turnover rates of any fantasy football players. In order to see which running back will become consistent, you need to have a few extras stashed away on your bench. This is what I see in Bradshaw. The Trent Richardson experiment in Indy has failed. The Colts dumped a first-round pick in this year’s draft for a player who clearly doesn’t have legs to stand on. While Bradshaw might be more than 30 years old (the point where running backs sharply decline), he still managed 13 points in a PPR setting. This is because he caught five passes for 70 yards against a pretty good Denver defense. He’s not going to rack up the hard yards between the tackles like he used to, but he can still be a solid contributor in a PPR league. Grab him up and stash him on your bench to see if his performances continue.

2) Allen Hurns, Jacksonville wide receiver

Earlier this year, I said rookies are some of the biggest wild cards in fantasy football. To this point, Bills rookie Sammy Watkins recorded only three catches for 30 yards in his pro debut, while Panthers’ rookie Kelvin Benjamin nabbed six balls for 92 yards and a touchdown. Enter Jacksonville rookie, Allen Hurns. Hurns took his first two catches from Chad Henne and turned them both into touchdowns. He finished the day with 110 yards. So long as Cecil Shorts is out with [injury] for the Jags, Hurns could be the go-to guy on a team that will very likely be playing from behind this season. Again, see if last week was a fluke before throwing him in, but pick him up to see if he’s a budding stud.

3) Josh Gordon, Cleveland wide receiver

All right, I’m gonna level with you guys. I know Gordon is suspended. I know he’s a massive risk for any fantasy owner out there. But I know that if his suspension is reduced this week, I want him on my team. Gordon missed the first two games of last season and still led all wide receivers in fantasy points last year. The NFL Players Association is negotiating new rules for drug testing. If it passes, there’s a chance that this week Gordon is reinstated by the league. You have extra bench spaces. Use them to pick up Gordon. If he’s reinstated, you have one of the best wideouts in football on your team. If he isn’t, then you drop him next week and pick up someone new. That’s what my plans are.

Good luck, fantasy experts, and may my fantasy teams lose, so yours don’t have to.

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Fantasy draft hangover

9/3/2014

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My head is in agony.

My stomach is turning over.

I feel lightheaded.

No, I didn’t spend all last night partying. I’m just looking at the shattered remains of a horrible fantasy football draft.

A bad draft can feel a lot like a hangover the next day. The wondering why in God’s name you did what you did, how can you fix the damage and vows to never let this travesty happen again.

And, like a hangover, there’s not much you can do to fix the damage you’ve caused.

Going into my fourth draft of the year, I was wildly confident. It was an auction draft and a keeper league, which meant I got to choose four players from last year’s team to keep this year (provided I pay what I paid to draft them last year).

For those keeping score at home, my auction league was also the league where last year I accidentally drafted three quarterbacks (Peyton Manning, Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton) in a one quarterback league.

This year was going to be different, though. The league changed its settings. We were granted an extra $100 to add to our auction budgets, and, more importantly, we added a second quarterback slot.

Two quarterbacks? Heck yes!

Now I could keep Newton and Manning — and of course I did.

In addition I nabbed LeSean McCoy and Doug Martin for a grand total of $118 out of my $400 dollars. That gave me the No. 1 quarterback, the No. 3 quarterback and the No. 2 running back in fantasy last season.

All I needed was a receiver.

When the draft started, I was nervous. I had the second-lowest amount of money left after declaring keepers. I watched as several receivers were taken off the board: Randall Cobb for $41, Dez Bryant for $50, Julio Jones for $85. I still had no receivers.

Then Roddy White, second-best wide receiver on the Atlanta Falcons, came to the auction.

I got into a bidding war.

Unfortunately, I won.

I spent $88 on a No. 2 wide receiver.

Ouch.

Spending nearly a quarter of your money on one player is never a good idea, but when it’s a stud like Adrian Peterson, it’s at least somewhat understandable.

With a sizeable chunk of my money gone, I was still able to nab “top-notch” players such Chris Ivory, Emmanuel Sanders and Bernard Pierce.

I even drafted so many wide receivers, I couldn’t make my joke pick of Brandon LaFell.

A complete tragedy.

In a league where it was nearly impossible to find a way to fail…I found a way to fail.

But hey, that all could change in a couple weeks. You never know.

That’s what this column is all about, though, ladies and gentlemen. I make bad decisions, and you guys get to learn from my mistakes so you don’t make them.

Have a draft you bombed too? Let me hear about it! Email me at 14tange14@gmail.com

Nick’s Picks

Note: don’t necessarily start these players out of the gate (unless you’re in a deep league), but keep an eye on them to see how they produce.

1) Kelvin Benjamin (WR, Carolina).

Owned in just 51.4 percent of ESPN leagues, count on Benjamin to make a huge splash in his rookie year. Out of the receivers that were on the Panther’s roster last season, none that caught a pass still remain.

None. Zero. Zilch.

Tight end Greg Olsen is the only remaining Panther who caught a Cam Newton pass last year. Steve Smith is now a Baltimore Raven, Brandon LaFell is a New England Patriot and Ted Ginn is an Arizona Cardinal.

To combat this, the Panthers signed 31-year-old Jason Avant and 32-year-old Jerricho Cotchery, in addition to using their first-round draft pick on Benjamin.

Make no mistake, Benjamin will be “the guy” by week two.

2) Coby Fleener (TE, Indianapolis)

Fleener is owned in a scant 25.8 percent of ESPN leagues right now. Obviously he’s no Jimmy Graham, but Fleener made a name for himself in college at Stanford catching passes…..

…from Andrew Luck, who is the Colt’s quarterback.

Fleener saw his stats double in his sophomore campaign over his rookie one. He caught 52 passes for 608 yards and four touchdowns in 2013.

This is a guy you want on your bench for a few weeks to see how he develops. Andrew Luck is projected to throw for four thousand yards by ESPN this season. Even if Reggie Wayne AND T.Y. Hilton post 1,500 yard years, that still leaves a thousand yards for a player like Fleener to grab.

And I don’t think either Hilton or Wayne gets 1,500 yards.

Good luck, fantasy experts! And may my fantasy teams lose, so yours don’t have to.

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Fantasy Draft Manifesto

8/31/2014

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Forget the World Cup, real football is back, America!

Is there really anything more exciting? Hopes are high, and trash talk is at a maximum between friends, co-workers and relatives.

Thirty-two million Americans played fantasy football in 2013 according to Forbes, and that number will only continue to grow this season.

I know what you’re thinking: Why am I about to take advice from a guy whose shtick is his team losing every week?

I’m no mastermind. I’ll never pretend to be. But I’ve been playing fantasy football for the last five years and I’d like to think I’ve picked up some tips and tricks along the way that an amateur fantasy football player can apply to help do well this season.

So whether this is your first-time fantasy football draft, or if your season just didn’t go so well last year and you want to start afresh, here are some tips for the budding fantasy football nerd in all of us.

Number one: Do your research

Remember that time you didn’t study for a big test because you thought you had it in the bag? How did that one turn out for you? Because any time I thought a test was in the bag and I didn’t study, it didn’t turn out so great.

Do your homework. ESPECIALLY if you’re putting money down on the league (which I really wouldn’t advocate for a first-timer). Make a list of players you really want, or really don’t want, and keep it handy for your draft.

Number two: Actually be present at the draft

First off, if you autodraft, you’ll never get the team you love or even a team you like. There will always be a player the computer passed on that you really wanted, or a player the computer took that you really didn’t want. Plus auto-drafted teams usually are the ones that take a kicker and a defense in the 7th or 8th round, which is a terrible and horrible idea (but more on that later!).

Secondly, no one, and I mean NO ONE, likes to draft with a owner on auto-drafting. ESPECIALLY if it’s an auction draft. The computer likes to overbid for players. While it’s hilarious to watch an auto-drafted team spend half its auction budget on one player (even if they are a really good one), when the computer is the only one bidding against you for a player you really want, it’s infuriating.

Last year, in the one auction league I was in, I got caught bidding against a computer. And I ended up with three quarterbacks in a one quarterback league.

Show up for your draft as a courtesy to yourself and the league you’re in. It’s fun to trash talk and it’s fun to joke about drafting strategies, but it’s not fun when half the league doesn’t show up to draft.

Number three: Pay attention to who you draft

I’m not saying don’t draft injured or suspended players, but make sure you know what you’re doing when you draft them. Ray Rice, for example, might still be a decent fantasy option after serving his two game suspension. However, it’s probably not in your best interests to use a first, second or even third round pick on him.

Also, if you see a player has a long-term injury, it’s a good idea to avoid them. For example, Sam Bradford recently tore his ACL. Injuries are part of fantasy football, but if you can avoid them, it’s a good idea to do so.

If you want to take a risk on an injured or suspended player, that’s up to you. Just make sure that you know what you’re getting into.

Number four: There is a time and a place for rookies to be drafted

Rookies are among the biggest wild-card players going into any fantasy football draft. Not every rookie will be the next Eddie Lacy (sixth-best running back last year) or Keenan Allen (top-20 wide receiver last year and best rookie at the position).

If you draft a rookie who plays extremely well, it can help carry your team to the playoffs. But there’s no reason that rookies should be taken before the 10th round. For every starter-caliber rookie, there’s at least 10 rookies who shouldn’t be drafted.

So draft new Carolina Panther wide-out Kelvin Benjamin. Draft Sammy Watkins from Buffalo. But don’t take them as starters. Use a late-round pick on your rookies and if they prove themselves to be consistent producers, go ahead and start them. But don’t expect rookies to step in and perform at an elite-caliber level. Some will this year. Most won’t.

Number five: Be mindful of how long it is before you pick again

This is especially true for those drafting from positions 1 to 3 and 8 to 10 (in a standard format snake draft). If you have the number one overall pick, congratulations. You just got either Adrian Peterson or LeSean McCoy.

However, 18 players will be taken off the board before you have a chance to draft again. Yes, you will have two picks in a row, but then another 18 players will be gone. And then another 18. You need to make sure there isn’t a player you really want coming up soon.

I can’t tell you how many times I’ve looked at a board and said “that player will last until I pick again,” and then watched as he was taken three picks later. Same goes for your “sleepers.” If you think they’re a sleeper pick, chances are someone else thinks of the same player as a sleeper pick as well. Just keep in mind how many players will be coming off the board before you have another chance to draft. You might miss out on a player you really wanted.

Number six: Be mindful of bye weeks

There are two schools of thought on the bye week.

1) Diversify bye weeks. You might have to sit a stud like Aaron Rodgers one week, but if you plan carefully, you’ll have a capable backup to go along with your regular roster. You might lose a stud for one week, but the roster will mostly be intact.

2) Don’t diversify bye weeks. You will guarantee yourself one loss, but then you don’t have to worry about playing lower-quality players the rest of the season.

Whichever school of thought you subscribe to, just make sure you’re consistent. If you’re trying to diversify, and you’re deciding between two players, consider picking the one who has a different bye week than the players you already drafted. The last thing you want is to go in expecting to diversify your bye weeks and end up with four starters sitting the same week.

This is another area where doing your homework will pay off huge dividends.

Number seven: Take a defense with one of your last two picks

This season in countless drafts, during the seventh or eighth round, someone is going to look at the draft board and say, “hmm. Seattle Seahawks defense is the best. I should pick them now.”

This season in countless leagues, the guy who picks a defense the 10th round or before will probably not make the playoffs.

The reason? Defenses are so fickle and so inconsistent on a week-to-week basis that it makes absolutely zero sense to waste a pick on a defense until you have to.

I have stats to back this up.

Since the 2010 season, the average difference between the number one ranked defense and the 10th ranked defense is a grand total of 3.5 points per game. The average size of a fantasy football league is 10 teams

Now I’m not saying that 3.5 points won’t make a difference, but the same average for quarterbacks is nine points per game. That’s significant.

In addition, preseason rankings aren’t a great indicator of how a defense will do in the upcoming year. Since 2010, twenty defenses that were predicted to finish in the bottom half of the league to start the season ended up finishing in the top 10. That’s 50 percent of top-10 defenses since 2010. In addition, the top-ranked preseason defense has finished in the top five that season one time. Only six preseason top-five defenses since 2010 finished in the top five.

What does all this mean?

Picking a defense is a crapshoot. There’s no reason to take an early round pick on a defense when there are plenty of other players on the board. The 10th round is where you grab that sleeper you like. The 10th is where you grab your backups. The 10th round is NOT where you grab your defense.

Number eight: Take a kicker with the other one of your last two picks.

These last two are also a reason why auto-drafting is like shooting your fantasy championship hopes in the foot. The computer is programmed to fill out your roster before taking backup players. That involves picking a kicker and a defense before picking backups. As we’ve seen, if you have the number one overall pick in a snake draft, it’s 18 players between picks. If you autodraft, there will be a gap of 36 players while your computer drafts a kicker and defense. That’s a LOT of talent you pass up so you can draft two positions that have no business being drafted until the end of the draft.

Looking at the same average equation as defenses, the difference between the top kicker and 10th-best kicker over the last four seasons averages out to 2.5 points per week.

It’s such a small difference that you don’t need to worry about it until later.

In every draft, I plan on using my last three picks on my kicker, my defense and a joke pick I always make (Brandon LaFell if you didn’t read my column last year).

Number nine: There is no need to EVER draft two defenses or two kickers.

As I’ve said before, there is a miniscule difference between the top-ranked kicker and defense and the 10th-best kicker and defense.

Because of this, it gives you the flexibility to switch up these two positions by grabbing players off the waiver wire during the season.

These are the only two positions where you can comfortably drop your starter and put in a waiver-wire fill-in and expect similar or even better production.

No one is dropping Peyton Manning for Geno Smith, unless Manning is done for the year for whatever reason.

If your kicker or defense is on a bye week, just drop them and pick up a new one. Like I said earlier, the later rounds is where you draft your rookies and sleepers. Don’t limit your roster by wasting spots on an extra kicker or defense.

Number 10: Have fun

Seriously. It’s fantasy football. If you win, you win. If you lose, you lose. There’s nothing wrong with either one. We play fantasy because we love the competition. But like the professionals can get caught up with the competition, it’s easy to lose sight of the fun. Don’t let that happen.

So keep your trash talk clean. No low blows, no personal stuff and no need to be a jerk. If you lose sight of the fun, you might not be invited back for next year’s league.

Best of luck to all of those Fantasy Football players out there! And for those new players, hang onto your hats! It’s going to be a wild, wild season.

Did I miss a tip? Think I’m completely off with something? Actually agree with me? Let me know! Email me at 14tange14@gmail.com and you too can see your name in next week’s column!

And as always, may my fantasy teams lose so yours don’t have to.

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Forward>>

Halfway home

winning ugly

Studs turned Duds

Bye week blues

Conflict of interests

An Injury-Riddled massacre

Overreacting to overreactions

Fantasy draft hangover

Fantasy Draft Manifesto

Nick Amatangelo

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