Forget the World Cup, real football is back, America!
Is there really anything more exciting? Hopes are high, and trash talk is at a maximum between friends, co-workers and relatives.
Thirty-two million Americans played fantasy football in 2013 according to Forbes, and that number will only continue to grow this season.
I know what you’re thinking: Why am I about to take advice from a guy whose shtick is his team losing every week?
I’m no mastermind. I’ll never pretend to be. But I’ve been playing fantasy football for the last five years and I’d like to think I’ve picked up some tips and tricks along the way that an amateur fantasy football player can apply to help do well this season.
So whether this is your first-time fantasy football draft, or if your season just didn’t go so well last year and you want to start afresh, here are some tips for the budding fantasy football nerd in all of us.
Number one: Do your research
Remember that time you didn’t study for a big test because you thought you had it in the bag? How did that one turn out for you? Because any time I thought a test was in the bag and I didn’t study, it didn’t turn out so great.
Do your homework. ESPECIALLY if you’re putting money down on the league (which I really wouldn’t advocate for a first-timer). Make a list of players you really want, or really don’t want, and keep it handy for your draft.
Number two: Actually be present at the draft
First off, if you autodraft, you’ll never get the team you love or even a team you like. There will always be a player the computer passed on that you really wanted, or a player the computer took that you really didn’t want. Plus auto-drafted teams usually are the ones that take a kicker and a defense in the 7th or 8th round, which is a terrible and horrible idea (but more on that later!).
Secondly, no one, and I mean NO ONE, likes to draft with a owner on auto-drafting. ESPECIALLY if it’s an auction draft. The computer likes to overbid for players. While it’s hilarious to watch an auto-drafted team spend half its auction budget on one player (even if they are a really good one), when the computer is the only one bidding against you for a player you really want, it’s infuriating.
Last year, in the one auction league I was in, I got caught bidding against a computer. And I ended up with three quarterbacks in a one quarterback league.
Show up for your draft as a courtesy to yourself and the league you’re in. It’s fun to trash talk and it’s fun to joke about drafting strategies, but it’s not fun when half the league doesn’t show up to draft.
Number three: Pay attention to who you draft
I’m not saying don’t draft injured or suspended players, but make sure you know what you’re doing when you draft them. Ray Rice, for example, might still be a decent fantasy option after serving his two game suspension. However, it’s probably not in your best interests to use a first, second or even third round pick on him.
Also, if you see a player has a long-term injury, it’s a good idea to avoid them. For example, Sam Bradford recently tore his ACL. Injuries are part of fantasy football, but if you can avoid them, it’s a good idea to do so.
If you want to take a risk on an injured or suspended player, that’s up to you. Just make sure that you know what you’re getting into.
Number four: There is a time and a place for rookies to be drafted
Rookies are among the biggest wild-card players going into any fantasy football draft. Not every rookie will be the next Eddie Lacy (sixth-best running back last year) or Keenan Allen (top-20 wide receiver last year and best rookie at the position).
If you draft a rookie who plays extremely well, it can help carry your team to the playoffs. But there’s no reason that rookies should be taken before the 10th round. For every starter-caliber rookie, there’s at least 10 rookies who shouldn’t be drafted.
So draft new Carolina Panther wide-out Kelvin Benjamin. Draft Sammy Watkins from Buffalo. But don’t take them as starters. Use a late-round pick on your rookies and if they prove themselves to be consistent producers, go ahead and start them. But don’t expect rookies to step in and perform at an elite-caliber level. Some will this year. Most won’t.
Number five: Be mindful of how long it is before you pick again
This is especially true for those drafting from positions 1 to 3 and 8 to 10 (in a standard format snake draft). If you have the number one overall pick, congratulations. You just got either Adrian Peterson or LeSean McCoy.
However, 18 players will be taken off the board before you have a chance to draft again. Yes, you will have two picks in a row, but then another 18 players will be gone. And then another 18. You need to make sure there isn’t a player you really want coming up soon.
I can’t tell you how many times I’ve looked at a board and said “that player will last until I pick again,” and then watched as he was taken three picks later. Same goes for your “sleepers.” If you think they’re a sleeper pick, chances are someone else thinks of the same player as a sleeper pick as well. Just keep in mind how many players will be coming off the board before you have another chance to draft. You might miss out on a player you really wanted.
Number six: Be mindful of bye weeks
There are two schools of thought on the bye week.
1) Diversify bye weeks. You might have to sit a stud like Aaron Rodgers one week, but if you plan carefully, you’ll have a capable backup to go along with your regular roster. You might lose a stud for one week, but the roster will mostly be intact.
2) Don’t diversify bye weeks. You will guarantee yourself one loss, but then you don’t have to worry about playing lower-quality players the rest of the season.
Whichever school of thought you subscribe to, just make sure you’re consistent. If you’re trying to diversify, and you’re deciding between two players, consider picking the one who has a different bye week than the players you already drafted. The last thing you want is to go in expecting to diversify your bye weeks and end up with four starters sitting the same week.
This is another area where doing your homework will pay off huge dividends.
Number seven: Take a defense with one of your last two picks
This season in countless drafts, during the seventh or eighth round, someone is going to look at the draft board and say, “hmm. Seattle Seahawks defense is the best. I should pick them now.”
This season in countless leagues, the guy who picks a defense the 10th round or before will probably not make the playoffs.
The reason? Defenses are so fickle and so inconsistent on a week-to-week basis that it makes absolutely zero sense to waste a pick on a defense until you have to.
I have stats to back this up.
Since the 2010 season, the average difference between the number one ranked defense and the 10th ranked defense is a grand total of 3.5 points per game. The average size of a fantasy football league is 10 teams
Now I’m not saying that 3.5 points won’t make a difference, but the same average for quarterbacks is nine points per game. That’s significant.
In addition, preseason rankings aren’t a great indicator of how a defense will do in the upcoming year. Since 2010, twenty defenses that were predicted to finish in the bottom half of the league to start the season ended up finishing in the top 10. That’s 50 percent of top-10 defenses since 2010. In addition, the top-ranked preseason defense has finished in the top five that season one time. Only six preseason top-five defenses since 2010 finished in the top five.
What does all this mean?
Picking a defense is a crapshoot. There’s no reason to take an early round pick on a defense when there are plenty of other players on the board. The 10th round is where you grab that sleeper you like. The 10th is where you grab your backups. The 10th round is NOT where you grab your defense.
Number eight: Take a kicker with the other one of your last two picks.
These last two are also a reason why auto-drafting is like shooting your fantasy championship hopes in the foot. The computer is programmed to fill out your roster before taking backup players. That involves picking a kicker and a defense before picking backups. As we’ve seen, if you have the number one overall pick in a snake draft, it’s 18 players between picks. If you autodraft, there will be a gap of 36 players while your computer drafts a kicker and defense. That’s a LOT of talent you pass up so you can draft two positions that have no business being drafted until the end of the draft.
Looking at the same average equation as defenses, the difference between the top kicker and 10th-best kicker over the last four seasons averages out to 2.5 points per week.
It’s such a small difference that you don’t need to worry about it until later.
In every draft, I plan on using my last three picks on my kicker, my defense and a joke pick I always make (Brandon LaFell if you didn’t read my column last year).
Number nine: There is no need to EVER draft two defenses or two kickers.
As I’ve said before, there is a miniscule difference between the top-ranked kicker and defense and the 10th-best kicker and defense.
Because of this, it gives you the flexibility to switch up these two positions by grabbing players off the waiver wire during the season.
These are the only two positions where you can comfortably drop your starter and put in a waiver-wire fill-in and expect similar or even better production.
No one is dropping Peyton Manning for Geno Smith, unless Manning is done for the year for whatever reason.
If your kicker or defense is on a bye week, just drop them and pick up a new one. Like I said earlier, the later rounds is where you draft your rookies and sleepers. Don’t limit your roster by wasting spots on an extra kicker or defense.
Number 10: Have fun
Seriously. It’s fantasy football. If you win, you win. If you lose, you lose. There’s nothing wrong with either one. We play fantasy because we love the competition. But like the professionals can get caught up with the competition, it’s easy to lose sight of the fun. Don’t let that happen.
So keep your trash talk clean. No low blows, no personal stuff and no need to be a jerk. If you lose sight of the fun, you might not be invited back for next year’s league.
Best of luck to all of those Fantasy Football players out there! And for those new players, hang onto your hats! It’s going to be a wild, wild season.
Did I miss a tip? Think I’m completely off with something? Actually agree with me? Let me know! Email me at [email protected] and you too can see your name in next week’s column!
And as always, may my fantasy teams lose so yours don’t have to.
Is there really anything more exciting? Hopes are high, and trash talk is at a maximum between friends, co-workers and relatives.
Thirty-two million Americans played fantasy football in 2013 according to Forbes, and that number will only continue to grow this season.
I know what you’re thinking: Why am I about to take advice from a guy whose shtick is his team losing every week?
I’m no mastermind. I’ll never pretend to be. But I’ve been playing fantasy football for the last five years and I’d like to think I’ve picked up some tips and tricks along the way that an amateur fantasy football player can apply to help do well this season.
So whether this is your first-time fantasy football draft, or if your season just didn’t go so well last year and you want to start afresh, here are some tips for the budding fantasy football nerd in all of us.
Number one: Do your research
Remember that time you didn’t study for a big test because you thought you had it in the bag? How did that one turn out for you? Because any time I thought a test was in the bag and I didn’t study, it didn’t turn out so great.
Do your homework. ESPECIALLY if you’re putting money down on the league (which I really wouldn’t advocate for a first-timer). Make a list of players you really want, or really don’t want, and keep it handy for your draft.
Number two: Actually be present at the draft
First off, if you autodraft, you’ll never get the team you love or even a team you like. There will always be a player the computer passed on that you really wanted, or a player the computer took that you really didn’t want. Plus auto-drafted teams usually are the ones that take a kicker and a defense in the 7th or 8th round, which is a terrible and horrible idea (but more on that later!).
Secondly, no one, and I mean NO ONE, likes to draft with a owner on auto-drafting. ESPECIALLY if it’s an auction draft. The computer likes to overbid for players. While it’s hilarious to watch an auto-drafted team spend half its auction budget on one player (even if they are a really good one), when the computer is the only one bidding against you for a player you really want, it’s infuriating.
Last year, in the one auction league I was in, I got caught bidding against a computer. And I ended up with three quarterbacks in a one quarterback league.
Show up for your draft as a courtesy to yourself and the league you’re in. It’s fun to trash talk and it’s fun to joke about drafting strategies, but it’s not fun when half the league doesn’t show up to draft.
Number three: Pay attention to who you draft
I’m not saying don’t draft injured or suspended players, but make sure you know what you’re doing when you draft them. Ray Rice, for example, might still be a decent fantasy option after serving his two game suspension. However, it’s probably not in your best interests to use a first, second or even third round pick on him.
Also, if you see a player has a long-term injury, it’s a good idea to avoid them. For example, Sam Bradford recently tore his ACL. Injuries are part of fantasy football, but if you can avoid them, it’s a good idea to do so.
If you want to take a risk on an injured or suspended player, that’s up to you. Just make sure that you know what you’re getting into.
Number four: There is a time and a place for rookies to be drafted
Rookies are among the biggest wild-card players going into any fantasy football draft. Not every rookie will be the next Eddie Lacy (sixth-best running back last year) or Keenan Allen (top-20 wide receiver last year and best rookie at the position).
If you draft a rookie who plays extremely well, it can help carry your team to the playoffs. But there’s no reason that rookies should be taken before the 10th round. For every starter-caliber rookie, there’s at least 10 rookies who shouldn’t be drafted.
So draft new Carolina Panther wide-out Kelvin Benjamin. Draft Sammy Watkins from Buffalo. But don’t take them as starters. Use a late-round pick on your rookies and if they prove themselves to be consistent producers, go ahead and start them. But don’t expect rookies to step in and perform at an elite-caliber level. Some will this year. Most won’t.
Number five: Be mindful of how long it is before you pick again
This is especially true for those drafting from positions 1 to 3 and 8 to 10 (in a standard format snake draft). If you have the number one overall pick, congratulations. You just got either Adrian Peterson or LeSean McCoy.
However, 18 players will be taken off the board before you have a chance to draft again. Yes, you will have two picks in a row, but then another 18 players will be gone. And then another 18. You need to make sure there isn’t a player you really want coming up soon.
I can’t tell you how many times I’ve looked at a board and said “that player will last until I pick again,” and then watched as he was taken three picks later. Same goes for your “sleepers.” If you think they’re a sleeper pick, chances are someone else thinks of the same player as a sleeper pick as well. Just keep in mind how many players will be coming off the board before you have another chance to draft. You might miss out on a player you really wanted.
Number six: Be mindful of bye weeks
There are two schools of thought on the bye week.
1) Diversify bye weeks. You might have to sit a stud like Aaron Rodgers one week, but if you plan carefully, you’ll have a capable backup to go along with your regular roster. You might lose a stud for one week, but the roster will mostly be intact.
2) Don’t diversify bye weeks. You will guarantee yourself one loss, but then you don’t have to worry about playing lower-quality players the rest of the season.
Whichever school of thought you subscribe to, just make sure you’re consistent. If you’re trying to diversify, and you’re deciding between two players, consider picking the one who has a different bye week than the players you already drafted. The last thing you want is to go in expecting to diversify your bye weeks and end up with four starters sitting the same week.
This is another area where doing your homework will pay off huge dividends.
Number seven: Take a defense with one of your last two picks
This season in countless drafts, during the seventh or eighth round, someone is going to look at the draft board and say, “hmm. Seattle Seahawks defense is the best. I should pick them now.”
This season in countless leagues, the guy who picks a defense the 10th round or before will probably not make the playoffs.
The reason? Defenses are so fickle and so inconsistent on a week-to-week basis that it makes absolutely zero sense to waste a pick on a defense until you have to.
I have stats to back this up.
Since the 2010 season, the average difference between the number one ranked defense and the 10th ranked defense is a grand total of 3.5 points per game. The average size of a fantasy football league is 10 teams
Now I’m not saying that 3.5 points won’t make a difference, but the same average for quarterbacks is nine points per game. That’s significant.
In addition, preseason rankings aren’t a great indicator of how a defense will do in the upcoming year. Since 2010, twenty defenses that were predicted to finish in the bottom half of the league to start the season ended up finishing in the top 10. That’s 50 percent of top-10 defenses since 2010. In addition, the top-ranked preseason defense has finished in the top five that season one time. Only six preseason top-five defenses since 2010 finished in the top five.
What does all this mean?
Picking a defense is a crapshoot. There’s no reason to take an early round pick on a defense when there are plenty of other players on the board. The 10th round is where you grab that sleeper you like. The 10th is where you grab your backups. The 10th round is NOT where you grab your defense.
Number eight: Take a kicker with the other one of your last two picks.
These last two are also a reason why auto-drafting is like shooting your fantasy championship hopes in the foot. The computer is programmed to fill out your roster before taking backup players. That involves picking a kicker and a defense before picking backups. As we’ve seen, if you have the number one overall pick in a snake draft, it’s 18 players between picks. If you autodraft, there will be a gap of 36 players while your computer drafts a kicker and defense. That’s a LOT of talent you pass up so you can draft two positions that have no business being drafted until the end of the draft.
Looking at the same average equation as defenses, the difference between the top kicker and 10th-best kicker over the last four seasons averages out to 2.5 points per week.
It’s such a small difference that you don’t need to worry about it until later.
In every draft, I plan on using my last three picks on my kicker, my defense and a joke pick I always make (Brandon LaFell if you didn’t read my column last year).
Number nine: There is no need to EVER draft two defenses or two kickers.
As I’ve said before, there is a miniscule difference between the top-ranked kicker and defense and the 10th-best kicker and defense.
Because of this, it gives you the flexibility to switch up these two positions by grabbing players off the waiver wire during the season.
These are the only two positions where you can comfortably drop your starter and put in a waiver-wire fill-in and expect similar or even better production.
No one is dropping Peyton Manning for Geno Smith, unless Manning is done for the year for whatever reason.
If your kicker or defense is on a bye week, just drop them and pick up a new one. Like I said earlier, the later rounds is where you draft your rookies and sleepers. Don’t limit your roster by wasting spots on an extra kicker or defense.
Number 10: Have fun
Seriously. It’s fantasy football. If you win, you win. If you lose, you lose. There’s nothing wrong with either one. We play fantasy because we love the competition. But like the professionals can get caught up with the competition, it’s easy to lose sight of the fun. Don’t let that happen.
So keep your trash talk clean. No low blows, no personal stuff and no need to be a jerk. If you lose sight of the fun, you might not be invited back for next year’s league.
Best of luck to all of those Fantasy Football players out there! And for those new players, hang onto your hats! It’s going to be a wild, wild season.
Did I miss a tip? Think I’m completely off with something? Actually agree with me? Let me know! Email me at [email protected] and you too can see your name in next week’s column!
And as always, may my fantasy teams lose so yours don’t have to.
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