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Midseason slump

10/29/2014

Good teams go through it.
Good Players go through it.
Everyone goes through it.

The "mid-season slump."

You think that everything is going good, you're riding high and then BAM: Losing streak.

The Seattle Seahawks went 1-2 in weeks 13-16 last year.
The Baltimore Ravens went 1-4 to end the season in 2012.
The New York Giants lost five of six near the end of 2011.
The Green Bay Packers lost three of four early on in 2010.

What do all these teams have in common?

They went on to win the Super Bowl that year.

These similarities are the only thing that are keeping me sane after last weekend's fantasy football

games.

I finished one and five.

It was supposed to be a big week for me. I was playing teams ranked near the top in three leagues. I lost every one of those games.

The only game I managed to win was against a team that's won three games all year. Hardly a statement win.

This week was, by far, the worst week of the season.

Two weeks ago, my teams looked primed for the playoffs. Now? only one team clings to a playoff spot, while the wheels are coming off of my other teams in a hurry.

It's do-or-die from this point forward. Every loss could mean missing the playoffs.

However, this might not get any easier this upcoming week. Many of the teams I face have records
equal or greater than mine.

So we'll have to wait and see what happens. Hopefully I can get a little lucky and build some momentum for a playoff push.

Lose a tough game? Need some roster advice? Email me at [email protected]! I respond to all emails, and your question will appear in next week's column!

Nick's Waiver Wire Picks of the Week:

1) Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks Wide Receiver

The Percy Harvin trade sent shockwaves through the league. Very few teams trade away the best offensive weapon they have. But that's exactly what the Seahawks did: sending Harvin to the Jets for picks in next year's NFL draft. Baldwin is now Russell Wilson's number one guy. He's only taken in 55 percent of leagues, so now is the time to get him, while you still can.

2) Dennard Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars Running Back

I'll admit. I was a bit skeptical after the former Michigan quarterback ran for 100 yards against the Browns. But then he did it again against the Dolphins. If he can do it against a Bengals team that has been less-than-impressive against the run? well we might have a burgeoning fantasy stud on our hands here. He's only taken in 30 percent of leagues, so you should be able to nab him.

3) Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers Wide Receiver

Wow. Did anyone see Ben Roethlisberger getting six touchdowns against a Colts team that shut out Cincinnati the week before? I certainly didn't. Two of those were caught by this rookie speedster. He's caught touchdowns in consecutive weeks, but you might want to wait on starting him to see if he's consistent. You'll still want to pick this guy up though, and since he's around in 97 percent of leagues, you should be able to do so no problem.

Good luck, fantasy experts! And may my teams loses so yours don't have to

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Halfway home

10/22/2014

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It’s all downhill from here. At long last, we’ve reached the halfway point of the regular season for fantasy football. It’s time to take stock of how your team (or in my case teams) are doing.

Have you been winning? Losing? Somehow managed to tie? Where are you in the standings?

These are just a few questions that you need to be asking yourself since time is beginning to run out on the season.

If you aren’t where you want to be, it’s time to make a change. The trade deadline is coming up and now might be the time to pull the trigger on that trade you’ve been thinking about. It’s time to drop that injured player who you thought might come back, and pick up someone new.

To put it bluntly, it’s time to get serious if you aren’t happy with your team right now.

In one of my leagues, I was relying on the running back duo of Bishop Sankey of the Tennessee Titans and Darren Sproles of the Philadelphia Eagles. I had lost three straight games after a 3-0 start. So what did I do? I dropped Sankey, benched Sproles and played Mark Ingram fresh off an injury and Roy Helu Jr. I won my first game in almost a month.

In another league I have been at my wit’s end trying to replace my first round pick, Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson. I’ve filled the gap with a combination of Oakland Raiders running back Darren McFadden, Buffalo Bills running back C.J. Spiller and backup Vikings running back Matt Asiata.

The results have been mixed, to say the least. I currently hold a 3-4 record, including a really close three-point loss this week.

What am I going to do about it? Well, I have two tight ends who are pretty good in Zach Ertz and Greg Olsen. I’m thinking about trying to flip one of them for an upgrade at running back. We’ll see how that works, but all I know is that I need to make a change in that league. I’m two games back in the standings and I need to make some kind of a move before it’s too late.

We’re coming on the stretch run. Every win you can get now will pay off big later. On the flip side, every loss could be the one that sends you out of the playoffs.

It’s do or die these next few weeks, so good luck out there.

How are your teams looking so far? New fantasy football players, how are you enjoying your first (or second) season? Let me know at [email protected]. You’ll make my week if you do!

Nick’s Waiver Wire Picks of the Week

1) Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins tight end

After being concussed week one, Reed didn’t see the field until week six. Since his return, he’s nabbed 13 balls for 146 yards. While he hasn’t found the end zone yet this season, if he continues this production, any touchdowns will make him extremely valuable. He’s still around in 65 percent of ESPN leagues, so get him while you still can.

2) Ronnie Hillman, Denver Broncos running back

When Montee Ball went down, there were a lot of questions in the Denver backfield. In two weeks, Hillman has quickly silenced the doubters. Those two games have seen Hillman put up 174 rushing yards, 45 reception yards and two touchdowns. Hillman is quickly rising into “must-start” territory, and owned in only 12 percent of leagues. Unfortunately for me, he’s already gone in my leagues.

3) Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals quarterback

In the three games Palmer has played in, he has gotten at least 250 yards and two touchdowns while committing only two turnovers. If you’re looking for a backup quarterback for a bye week fill in (week nine is a big week for byes) or need to finally get a competent QB, Palmer could be your guy. He’s taken in less than 10 percent of leagues, but if he continues to produce like this, that could change quickly.

Good luck, fantasy experts! And may my teams lose so yours don’t have to.

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winning ugly

10/15/2014

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The late, great Al Davis (former Oakland Raiders owner) had a saying: “Just win, baby.”

This mentality can, in many cases, be applied to fantasy football.

On Sunday, I got a text from my girlfriend saying she couldn’t believe she benched Carolina Panthers’ quarterback Cam Newton (284 passing yards, two TDs, 107 rushing yards, rushing TD) for Eli Manning (151 passing yards, no touchdowns).

But she did play Green Bay Packers’ receiver Jordy Nelson (nine catches, 107 yards, TD), Baltimore Ravens’ receiver Steve Smith (five catches, 110 yards, TD) and Arizona Cardinals’ receiver Larry Fitzgerald (six catches, 96 yards, TD) and was winning against her opponent.

I told her, “a win is still a win.”

In my two-flex player league, my four wide receivers combined for a grand total of 17 points.

But it doesn’t matter: I still won.

And a win is a win.

In my Rambler Sports Locker league, Buffalo Bills’ running back C.J. Spiller finished the day with negative points due to a costly fumble.

But it doesn’t matter: I still won.

And a win is a win.

In another league I played my beloved New York Giants receiver Victor Cruz, who was carted off the field with a torn patellar tendon on Sunday Night Football against the Eagles. I was also forced to bench Detroit receiver Calvin Johnson (considered one of the best in football) due to an injury.

But it doesn’t matter: I still won.

And a win is oh, you get the picture.

Yes. You aren’t always going to make the best decisions. You’re going to play players who do absolutely nothing while benching players who have career days.

Yes. You’re going to play players who are going to get hurt.

Yes. You’re going to make gambles that just won’t pay off.

Yes. You might be going up against people who stopped caring about the league and aren’t filling out their teams.

I used to think winning against owners who stopped caring was a hollow victory. It doesn’t have the same feeling as a win against someone who was really trying like you were. But you know what? You’ll have plenty of those kinds of matchups throughout the season and throughout the playoffs (if you’re fortunate enough to make it).

Now I look at these matchups against idle owners as kind of a mini-bye week. Just about anything can happen, and still my team will come out with a win.

It wasn’t all good in my leagues this week; I finished 4-2.

The running back pairing of Eagles’ speedster Darren Sproles and Tennessee Titans’ running back Bishop Sankey proved to be ineffective (save for Sproles’ touchdown), and the strong performances from San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick and Houston Texans’ running back Arian Foster for my opponent pounded the final nails into the coffin.

Do you have an example of winning ugly that you want to share? Need some advice on players? Email me at [email protected]. I’m anxiously awaiting your emails.

Nick’s Waiver wire picks of the week:

1) Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota running back

This one’s a bit of a deeper sleeper, but if you’re in a PPR league and are desperate for a running back, he’s the one I’m targeting. Over the last two weeks, he’s out-played starter Matt Asiata, and might be in line for more carries. His pass-catching ability alone makes him more valuable. Owned in just 5.1 percent of ESPN leagues, you should have no trouble locking him up.

2) Mohamed Sanu, Cincinnati wide receiver

With starter A.J. Green out, Sanu stepped up big against the Panthers, catching 10 passes for 120 yards. Even with Green returning, Sanu should still be a big factor in the offense, if he can score a touchdown. He’s scored in three of the last four games, so it’s safe to assume he’ll get looks in the red zone, just like Green. He’s currently taken in only 38.9 percent of leagues, but that number will likely dwindle soon.

3) Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots wide receiver

No, I’m not joking. I know LaFell has been my consummate joke pick over the last few years, but the winds of change are blowing in New England. Devoid of veteran receivers (outside of Rob Gronkowski), Tom Brady has given LaFell numerous looks over the last few weeks. Next week we see the Patriots going against the Bears. If you do the math, he’s likely going to continue this production. Add in the fact he’s only owned in less than 3 percent of ESPN leagues and you could have a winning formula on your hands.

Good luck, fantasy experts, and may my teams lose, so yours don’t have to.

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Studs turned Duds

10/8/2014

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Losses are frustrating most when your players that are supposed to perform the best, perform the worst. It's one thing to have an injury, it's another thing when the player is on the field and just is failing to perform.

I am a firm believer in the "start your studs" mentality. In other words, just because a player had one bad game or is going against a tough opponent, it doesn't mean you should bench them right away.

However, it's getting to the point of the season where if bad performances pile up, that idea might need to be changed.

Take, for instance, C.J. Spiller from the Buffalo Bills. Spiller was ranked by ESPN as one of the top 40 players in all of fantasy football coming into this season. So far, in five contests, Spiller has put forth a grand total of 321 rushing and receiving yards as well as one touchdown. That's a pitiful six and a half fantasy points per week.

Another player that should be putting up consistent numbers, yet isn't, is LeSean McCoy. Drafted in the top-five by essentially every fantasy draft, McCoy has put up a total of nine points over the last three weeks. If you take away his lone touchdown in week two, he'll have broken the 10 point mark only one time.

Other top-50 players that are having difficulty (not related to injury) include Percy Harvin (hasn't broken the 100-yard mark in a game this year, or found the end zone), Montee Ball (who before getting injured this week had only found the end zone in week one and hasn't finished above 10 points since), Andre Johnson (also hasn't broken 100 yards or found the end zone in a game this year) and Larry Fitzgerald (no touchdowns and has only broken 50 yards twice all season).

And that's not even mentioning Adrian Peterson.

Then you have the players that are boom-or-bust. In other words, they'll have one good or great week, and then have an absolutely awful week.

Demaryius Thomas is definitely one of those players. In his first three games, he broke 60 yards once, and found the end zone once.

On Sunday, "DT" caught eight passes for 226 yards and TWO touchdowns.

Boom-or-Bust players are some of the worst players to have, because they're entirely unpredictable. But I think it's worse when you expect a player to be a stud, and he either fails to live up to potential, or becomes dangerously inconsistent.

When it comes to these players, there are two options. You either stay the course and hope things turn around, or you bench them.

Sometimes it takes one good game to wake a player up, and they're consistent the rest of the way.

However, on the other side, some players just never get going and face a down year.

It's a player-by-player basis when it comes to this situation, and you just gotta go with your gut. Maybe you'll get lucky. Maybe you won't. But at the end of the day, a little luck is sometimes all you can hope for in fantasy football.

In my money league, I was taking on the number one team in the league. My spirits were extremely high after the Thursday Night Football game saw my Packer's Defense score an astounding 23 points. My confidence grew when I saw Peyton Manning finish with an amazing 31 points after his career-high 479 yards.

But my hopes were dashed on Monday Night Football with Marshawn Lynch's fourth quarter touchdown.

Despite my strong performances from Manning and the Packers, only two other players broke 10 points on my team. My keepers (McCoy and Doug Martin) combined for 12 points, while most expensive picks (Roddy White, Michael Floyd and Kelvin Benjamin) combined for an embarrassing 3 points.

In another league, my poor running back situation, plus Calvin Johnson's lingering ankle injury, doomed me. In a PPR setting, Johnson and running backs Bishop Sankey (Tennessee) and Daren Sproles (Philadelphia) combined for nine and a half points. Just despicable.

I was hoping to follow up my 4-2 week with another winning week, but unfortunately, I finished a sad 2-4.

Back to .500 on the season, I guess!

Frustrated with a big name player that isn't performing up to your standards? Need some roster help? Want to just talk fantasy? Please Email me! I had my wisdom teeth out this week, so now, more than ever, I'm able to respond to emails! You know the address, [email protected].

Nick's Waiver-Wire Picks of the Week:

1) Andre Williams: New York Giants Running Back

With Rashad Jennings out, Williams will likely get the bulk of the carries against Philadelphia this week. If Williams can find the end zone, he will make it three-straight weeks with a score, making him a player you can start in the flex with confidence. It does help that Philadelphia hasn't kept a team under 25 points since week one. Williams is currently available in 36.4 percent of ESPN leagues, so get him while you can.

2) Justin Forsett: Baltimore Ravens Running Back

Forsett has emerged as the best option in a very crowded Baltimore backfield as they attempt to fill the void left by the Ray Rice scandal. He's best suited in a PPR league, where he averages over four catches a game. If he can keep finding the endzone (another player with two straight weeks with touchdowns), he can make it worth your while. Owned in 21.8 percent of ESPN leagues, he should be out there for you to grab.

3) Chargers D/ST

I never put defenses here, just because there's no such thing as a sure thing at the position.

The Chargers are playing the Raiders.

This is as close of a sure thing you'll ever get.

Still around in just over 20 percent of ESPN leagues, so grab them if you can, and reap the rewards.

Good luck fantasy experts, and may my teams lose, so yours don't have to.

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Bye week blues

10/1/2014

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In what sick, twisted universe are fantasy studs like Marshawn Lynch, Peyton Manning, Giovanni Bernard and Andre Ellington all not playing in the same week?

Oh right, the bye weeks have started.

Bye weeks are an integral part of the NFL. It gives players time to rest and recuperate in the midst of the long grind that is the NFL season.

However, while they help the real football players, they’re nothing but a headache for fantasy owners.

In my draft manifesto, I said there are two schools of thought on the bye week when it comes to drafting: stack up on bye weeks, or diversify them.

My go-to strategy is to diversify. I don’t like the idea of selling out one win to be successful every other week. To me, that one win could be the difference between making the playoffs and going home.

However, despite my usual attitude, I realized after drafting that not one but two of my teams were in dire straits because I overlooked players’ bye weeks.

In those two leagues, I only had one player that was playing last week who didn’t make the starting lineup. Every other case saw the players I took a late-round flier on finding their way into counting for my team.

I went 1-1 in those games. In one league, Philip Rivers’ outstanding day made up for the fact I had to grab Jacksonville wide-out Allen Robinson (who?) on Sunday to replace Michael Floyd from Arizona.

In the other, I was forced to play Carlos Hyde, Derek Carr and Doug Martin, who was coming off an injury. Martin did OK (40 rushing yards, 16 receiving yards and a touchdown). Hyde did not (26 rushing yards). Carr didn’t even make it through the game, going down in the third quarter with a high ankle sprain and a sprained MCL. Once again, my kicker outscored my entire team. I can’t stand it when my kicker outscores my entire team.

My last undefeated team also went down this week. Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones combined for a sickening 8 total receptions for 94 yards, zero touchdowns and 14 fantasy points. They matched up against Reggie Wayne and Jordy Nelson, who combined for 17 receptions, 227 yards, three touchdowns, and a helluva lot more than 14 fantasy points. My team never had a chance.

However, this week wasn’t all bad. Two of my teams won because my opponents were facing the same bye-week problems I was.

I ended up 4-2 on the week, and am in playoff position in half of my leagues.

As we pass the quarter-pole of the season, a lot can still happen and despite fast or slow starts, there will be many shakeups throughout every league before the final few weeks of the season are here.

Who do you have to put in to cover a bye week? Need advice on who to start/sit next week? Questions about who to pick up from waivers? Email me at [email protected]!

Nick’s Waiver Wire Picks of the Week:

1) Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs’ tight end

Kelce has emerged as one of the top receiving options in a run-first Kansas City offense. He has yet to record fewer than 35 yards in a game, and has found the end zone in back-to-back contests. In addition, in the Monday Night Football contest against New England, Kelce hauled in eight passes, making him a potential PPR league player. He’s only owned in 37 percent of leagues, so if you need a tight end, he could be your guy.

2) Larry Donnell, New York Giants’ tight end

If Kelce is unavailable, another guy I’m targeting on the waiver wire is Larry Donnell. Donnell exploded for three touchdowns last week in the Giants’ 45-14 punishing of the Washington Redskins. Eli Manning threw four touchdowns, all to tight ends. But last week wasn’t Donnell’s only decent game. He averages just over six catches a game for an average of just under 60 yards. In a PPR format, that’s an average of 12 points per game before you factor touchdowns into the mix. He’s available in around 73 percent of leagues, but won’t be around for long after last week’s performance.

3) Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings quarterback

Bridgewater has the potential to be the best rookie quarterback this year. In two weeks, he has only five fewer fantasy points than Tom Brady has all season. And I’m betting you didn’t draft Bridgewater in the first 10 rounds like you likely did Brady. Bridgewater looked solid against the Falcons before suffering an ankle injury. He might miss this week (since they play Thursday night against the Packers), but after that he should be a viable fantasy starter with Matt Cassel on injured reserve the rest of the season. He’s available in 90 percent of leagues, so you should be able to scoop him up, no problem.

Good luck, fantasy experts, and may my teams lose so yours don’t have to.

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Midseason slump

Halfway home

winning ugly

Studs turned Duds

Bye week blues

Nick Amatangelo

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