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Playoff PUSH

11/26/2014

One of my favorite things about the NFL around this time is looking at playoff scenarios. ESPN has a "Playoff Predictor" feature that allows anyone to predict the rest of the NFL season and see what teams would make the playoffs if what you predicted played out.

I LOVE the Playoff Predictor. Last season, when the Jacksonville Jaguars started 1-9, but won three straight games in a week AFC, there was still a solid chance that the team could make the playoffs. The list was rather long, but it was entirely possible for it to happen. The Jags went on to lose their last three games, but it was still an entertaining thought while it was still possible.

For me, the same love for predicting the playoffs in the actual NFL carries over to fantasy football.

Also for me, many of my playoff hopes and dreams rely on some of these precarious situations that need to play out for me to make the playoffs.

I went 5-1 last week. It was a good week in which I was desperate for wins.

In standard leagues, the top four teams make the playoffs. Luckily for me, I'm currently in two leagues where the top six or top eight teams will advance.

In those leagues, a win will get me in where a loss will likely send me home. One of those leagues will see me taking on one of the worst teams in the league. Unfortunately, the other league will have me playing against the second-best team. I'm feeling confident about those two leagues, but with my luck, I'll probably lose at least one of those games.

I've locked up a spot in my family league, despite benching Rodgers two weeks ago in that brutal loss.

I've been eliminated in the league I was fortunate enough to draft Adrian Peterson with my number two overall pick. Honestly I'm surprised I managed a 5-7 record with no first-round pick after week two.

Now is where things get interesting.

In my 12-team standard league, I am 7-5 after starting 5-2. Even with this recent slump, if I win this week, and another team loses, I will make the playoffs. If I lose or the other team wins, I'll be on the outside looking in.

The biggest stretch for me to get into the playoffs is in my money league. I'm currently 6-6 and in sixth place. This week, I play the team that's in fifth place. I hold the tiebreaker over the team in fourth place. In order to lock up a playoff spot, I need to win AND the team in fourth needs to lose. Unfortunately, the team in fourth is playing a two-win team that I don't think has updated his team since week three.

It's going to take an absolute miracle on par with the miracle needed to get the Jaguars into the playoffs last year.

We'll see how it all plays out over the next few weeks, but I think it's safe to say that I'll likely miss out on the playoffs in around half of my six leagues.

Are you on the fringe of the playoffs? Have you locked up your spot? Out indefinitely? Let me hear about it! Email me at [email protected]! I promise a response!

Nick's Waiver Wire Picks of the Week:

1) LeGarrette Blount, New England Running Back

Man things change quickly when Bill Belichick is in charge. One minute, Jonas Gray is running for four touchdowns against the Colts, the next moment, Gray doesn't get a single touch against the Lions. Apparently, Gray was five minutes late to a team meeting earlier in the week. Enter LeGarrette Blount. Blount was released from the Steelers two weeks ago after becoming angry with the Steelers organization for not giving him touches. The Patriots gave him plenty: 12 rushes for 78 yards and two touchdowns in his first game with the team. Available in 80 percent of leagues, Blount looks like he will be the feature back in the Patriots running game going forward.

2) Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars Tight End

I know in a lot of my leagues, tight end is a thin position. Marcedes Lewis could be a good fill-in. Lewis was on short-term injured reserve, and missed ten weeks. Lewis was back last week and had a less-than-exciting performance against the Colts. However, with a favorable schedule coming up, Lewis might be in line to see more targets and reception. If you're desperate, he's available in 83 percent of leagues.

3) Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders Running Back

Murray exploded onto the scene with two touchdowns and 112 yards in Oakland's first victory of the season. While he did sustain a concussion, if he returns, it's hard to believe the Raiders won't give Murray the opportunity to improve upon such a dominating performance. He's around 90 percent of leagues so pick him up if you need a running back.

Good luck fantasy experts! and may my teams lose, so yours don't have to.

And Happy Thanksgiving! Remember that there are three great games, so remember to set your lineups early!

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Grudge Match

11/19/2014

2 Comments

Every season, every team looks at the schedule and circles one or two games.

Division rivals. Defending champions. Tough matchups.

These games are the ones that any given team take more serious than any others.

It's their "grudge match" so to speak.

Every year, my grudge match happens to come against my girlfriend, Megan. We talk a TON of trash throughout the year (all in good fun, of course) until the week where we inevitably play each other.

Last year, for example, she posted on my Facebook wall her team was projected to beat mine. When my team actually pulled off the win, I posted the picture of my win to her Facebook wall.

Last week was, of course, my grudge match: Megan vs. me.

Almost predictably, given the way this season has gone, I lost.

My two running backs, Oakland's Darren McFadden and Atlanta's Steven Jackson combined for 60 yards and two completions for eight points.

One of Megan's running backs, Kansas City's Jamaal Charles, had at least eight points in the first quarter of his 159 yard, two touchdown day.

Had I managed to win my grudge match this week, I might be able to salvage the season in one league. However, at 4-7, my dreams of the playoffs have been dashed.

It's extremely important to win grudge matches. They might count the same on the score sheet, but man is it gratifying when you can beat a rival and frustrating when you can't manage a win.

In another league, a poor Sunday Night Football showing from Colt's quarterback Andrew Luck brought me to the very edge of elimination.

Two other strong victories solidified my place in the second season.

I finished the week with yet another average 3-3 week. With the playoffs fast approaching, I need my teams to start getting things together, or it's going to be a short stay in the postseason for me.

How did you fare in your grudge matches this season? What's your playoff picture looking like? Email me at [email protected]!

Nick's Waiver Wire Picks of the Week

1) Jonas Gray, New England Patriots Running back

Have yourself a day Jonas Gray. Did anyone see his four-touchdown day against the Colts coming? I sure didn't. Gray just established himself as a dominating force on a New England team that is banged up at running back. He'll step into the feature back role from now on, and my bet is he will do very well. He's still around in 41 percent of leagues, but I can guarantee you he's one of the hot items on the waiver wire this week.

2) Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles Wide Receiver

Lost in the Eagles' crushing defeat to the Green Bay Packers is that Matthews had another good game with Mark Sanchez throwing him the football. In the last three weeks, Matthews has caught 15 balls for just under 280 yards and FOUR touchdowns. Somehow Matthews is still around in 45 percent of leagues. If he is in yours, grab him.

3) Alfred Blue, Houston Texans Running Back

So long as Arian Foster is sidelined with a groin injury, Blue is the way to go. Blue exploded for 150 yards last week against a decent Cleveland Browns team. With two dates against Jacksonville and another against Tennessee, Blue might become the next Ben Tate of the Houston Texans. In other words, a great change of pace back, capable of stepping into a number one runner spot if Foster gets hurt. Blue can still be found in 44 percent of leagues, so grab him now while you can.

Good luck Fantasy experts! and may my teams lose, so yours don't have to.

2 Comments

bad decisions

11/12/2014

2 Comments

"What have I done."

That's the question I asked myself as I watched the Bears-Packers Sunday Night Football game.

As a Packers fan, you'd think I'd be happy to see Aaron Rodgers shred the Bears defense to the tune of six first-half touchdowns, and you'd be right.

But, in the second half, I got a text from my cousin, who I was playing against this week: Boy did you make a mistake sitting Rodgers.

I did WHAT?

I SAT RODGERS?!

In disbelief, I ripped open my laptop to see if it was just a cruel joke. Sure enough, there was Rodger's six touchdowns and 370 yards gone to waste.

The quarterback I played? Carson Palmer. Not usually a BAD decision, per say, except for the fact that this week he tore his ACL and didn't finish the game.

To add insult to injury, had I switched my quarterbacks, I would have easily won. Instead I lost, sending my team to last place in that league.

This marks -- bar none -- the worst decision I have EVER made in fantasy football.

Just because it was an auto-drafted six-team league, I got cocky and didn't really bother to check my team beyond switching out players on their bye week.

This is a cautionary tale: no matter how much you think you have a game in the bag, it is no excuse to slack off and not take everything seriously.

Bad decisions happen. It's excusable if you took the time to weigh your options and then pick wrongly. We're not psychic, after all.

But if you don't take the time to choose carefully, you have no one to blame but yourself.

Every win in fantasy is sacred. Every loss could be the one that sends you home.

I finished this week 2-4 and wondering what could have been if I had put the necessary time and effort into my team.

Make an earth-shatteringly bad decision like I did? Need some roster advice? Let me know at [email protected]. One of these days someone will reach out, I know it!

Nick's Waiver Wire Picks of the Week

1) Mychal Rivera: Oakland Raiders Tight End

The last three games, Rivera has averaged seven catches for 60 yards and a touchdown. With only one game left on the schedule that the Raiders actually have a legitimate chance at winning (week 16 against Buffalo), there's a good chance that they'll be down and throwing often. In a PPR setting, Rivera is a player you should be able to start with confidence. Since he's only taken in 40 percent of ESPN leagues, you should be confident in your chances of picking him up.

2) Mike Evans: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Wide Receiver

Another player from a team that has no hope for the rest of the season. They'll also be playing from behind a lot, and rookie Mike Evans has emerged as a decent target. Over the last two weeks, Evans has caught 14 passes for 249 yards and three touchdowns. In the next few weeks, Evans will get to play the Redskins, Bears and Panthers who have surrendered large chunks of yards to wide receivers, so he's a player that can make an impact as the season winds down. He's only around in 29 percent of leagues, so get him while you still can.

3) Ryan Mathews: San Diego Chargers Running Back

Mathews has been out since sustaining a knee injury in week two. With his return, he'll provide a boost to a Chargers team that has been extremely injured at running back all year. He gets to start his comeback against the Raiders: a team he rack up 119 yards and a touchdown against last year. He's around in 55 percent of ESPN leagues, so don't hesitate to pick him up.

Good luck, fantasy experts! And may my teams lose, so yours don't have to.

2 Comments

Saviors in waiting?

11/5/2014

1 Comment

Another week gone, another middle-of-the-road performance.

Honestly, 3-3 isn’t bad. Especially considering that six teams were on bye, including the Packers, Bears, Lions and Falcons.

Those are four teams with a LOT of fantasy power on them.

So, considering that most of my teams were at a severe disadvantage, 3-3 is pretty decent.

I just…I just have higher hopes for them, you know?

I need a sleeper. No. I need a fantasy savior.

I need Josh “The Flash” Gordon.

Gordon has been sitting on the bench in all six leagues for nine weeks now…waiting to take the league by storm.

And he’s just a couple weeks away from doing so.

Why has he been sitting for so long?

Well, the fact that he’s been suspended all nine weeks hasn’t really given me an opportunity to play him.

Yes, the Cleveland wide out has spent the last half of the season sitting out for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy.

He led the league in receiving last year, despite sitting out the first two games for (again) violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy.

He also had Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell throwing him the ball for a good portion of last year.

This year, there’s a healthy Brian Hoyer throwing the pigskin in Cleveland.

In the two games that Gordon and Hoyer played in last year, Gordon caught 14 passes for 210 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately for Gordon (and the city of Cleveland), Hoyer tore his ACL early in week five and failed to finish out the year.

This year, the Browns are competitive and will desperately need Gordon’s skill set if they want to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002. They’re going to throw to him, and throw to him often.

He’s still available in 41 percent of leagues. If he’s out there, get him and get him now.

Hopefully Gordon picks up right where he left off from last year and pushes my fantasy teams over the edge this week.

But Gordon isn’t the only potential fantasy savior out there. Another player might be returning to action in the near future. I’m speaking, of course, of Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson.

Now, I’m not going to say a thing about the NFL domestic violence policy, or if AP’s actions were right or wrong.

What I am going to say is that when AP is on the field, he is a top-three fantasy running back.

With Peterson agreeing to a plea that avoids jail time, he is potentially only a few weeks away from returning to action on a Vikings team that is down but not out yet.

If Peterson does return to action, he could provide the necessary lift for any team lacking in running backs.

He’s available in 45 percent of ESPN leagues. That says, to me, to go for it. On the chance he does play, he’s going to make anyone who picked him up happy.

Have a player you’re hoping is your fantasy savior? Need roster advice? Send me an email at [email protected]. I promise a response and your question will appear in next week’s column!

Nick’s Waiver Wire Picks of the Week:

Other than AP and Josh Gordon, of course.

1) Terrance West: Cleveland Browns running back

Look out NFL fans, there’s a new sheriff in the backfield. After Ben Tate failed to put together any sort of momentum over the last few weeks (averaging 1.2 yards per carry in that time), the Browns turned to West to be the workhorse. West delivered with 48 yards and a reception touchdown. Look for West to shoulder the load going forward. People are picking him up fast, though; he’s only available in 53 percent of ESPN leagues.

2) Mark Sanchez: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback

No, I’m not crazy. The former New York Jet has redefined himself under Chip Kelly’s guidance in Philly. He looked comfortable coming off the bench for the injured Nick Foles and leading the Eagles to a win over the Texans. This week, Sanchez takes on a Carolina Panthers team that has looked unimpressive on the defensive side of the ball so far this year. He’s only taken in 16 percent of ESPN leagues, so if you’re desperate for a quarterback, it might be time to party like it’s 2008 again with Sanchez.

Good luck, fantasy experts! And may my teams lose so yours don’t have to!

1 Comment

Playoff PUSH

Grudge Match

bad decisions

Saviors in waiting?

Nick Amatangelo

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